2018年9月22日,中心研究员王晋于中央电视台英语频道(CGTN)就俄罗斯军机被击落事件对俄以关系影响发表评论文章,全文如下:
The downing of Russian military plane Il-20 by "Israeli provocation" may be seen as the most sensitive crisis between Israel and Russia in a decade. According to Russian Ministry of Defense, the military transport plane with 15 Russian soldiers was shot down by Syrian air defense system earlier this week as Israel F-16s attempted to use it as "cover" while carrying out a bombing mission against targets in the Latakia region of western Syria near the Mediterranean coast.
Although the downed plane incident is sensitive, both Russia and Israel are willing to make a compromise to keep their bilateral relationship positive.
After the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, Israel's role in Syria has been both restrained and controversial. Unlike other Middle East states such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey, who directly supported either the Syrian government or different rebel groups, Israel chose not to support any related party in the Syrian civil war and stayed away from long-lasting conflicts given that Israel was not officially recognized by most Arab states, including Syria.
On the other hand, Israel has launched dozens of airstrikes against military targets inside Syria since 2011. Israeli military and intelligence establishments believe that Syria has already become an important front line and stronghold for Iran and other Shia militant groups backed by Tehran in conspiring wars and attacks against Israel.
Therefore, Israel needs to preserve the positive relations with Moscow. Israel is worried that the incident will paralyze Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) activities and enable Iran to transfer arms to Hezbollah and other Shia militant groups.
United States' hesitation with direct involvement in the Syrian civil war and Tehran's growing influence in Syria has strengthened Israel's need to establish a closer relationship with Russia. For Israel, Russia is the only reliable partner that can speak for Israel on several important international podiums.
For Russia, Israel is an important partner in international arena.
First, more than one million Israeli Russian Jews have become an important bridge between Russians and Israelis. Russian is still a popular daily language for many Israeli Russian Jews, while many Israeli Jews travel frequently to maintain the family and business network between Russia and Israel. Russian President Vladimir Putin once stressed the role of Russian Jews in the friendship between Israel and Russia as "more than half of Israelis can speak Russian."
Second, Israel is an important partner for Russia over the Syria issue. Israel's limited role in Syria could be easily transformed into an important influence in the Syrian battlefield. In the 1980s, Israel was an important player in Lebanese civil war through its direct occupation of Southern Lebanon and its support to Lebanese Christian militant groups to compete with Shia and Sunni militants. Russia needs to take Israel's concerns and influence in Syria into consideration if Moscow wants to start the post-war political reconstruction in Syria at the earliest.
Third, Israel is an important gateway for Russia to bridge its division with the US. Israel's traditional "unbreakable" alliance with the US and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's personal friendship with US President Donald Trump makes Israel an irreplaceable partner for Moscow if it wants to ease tensions with the US.
Even though the Russian military plane crash is a sensitive issue for both Israel and Russia, Moscow and Tel Aviv need each other on tackling the Syrian issue and other international and regional matters.
The military communication channel, which has been maintained for years since the Syrian civil war broke out, will not be cut down, and the bilateral ties between Israel and Russia will not be threatened.