2018年8月2日，王晋研究员于中央电视台英语频道（CGTN）发表时事评论文章，全文如下：

Two months havepassed since the Iraqi parliamentary election was held in May, but theformation of a new government is still facing obstacles. The new government,new parliament, and the subsequent political policies will have a direct impacton Iraq’s chances of achieving stability. No matter which camp successfullydominates the Iraqi government in the future, there are several hurdles thatmight influence the developments in the country.

The first obstacle is whether the Iraqi central government is able toovercome internal rifts and unify a coherent and inclusive leading team. Thepolitical system in Iraq has been characterized by internal divisions andconsiderable intricacies ever since the United States overthrew Saddam Husseinin 2003. The ability to overcome the divisions among the country's Shia, Sunni,and Kurdish population, and to promote national agenda that takes into accountthe needs of all sectors, as well as the interests and concerns from both theUS and Iran, will have a decisive impact on the future of the Iraqi governmentand the political stability in the country.

The second sensitive issue that the Iraqi central government shouldcarefully handle is how to disarm or "politicalize" the Shiamilitants, especially the Iran-backed People Mobilization Units (PMU, al-Hashdal-Shaabi). Since 2014, Shia militants led by the PMU have constituted the mostimportant power inside Iraq to resist the expansion of ISIL in the country. Itis widely agreed that without the involvement of the PMU militants, the Iraqigovernment would neither have achieved victory nor regained control over theterritory it had lost.

It is an open secret that the PMU has close ties with Tehran, from whichit receives financial and military aid. The commander of Al-Quds Force ofIran's Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, became the real commander of theShia militants in Iraq.

Following ISIL's ousting from Iraq, it became a very sensitive questionwhether the PMU will give up arms or remain a militant group that might havethe capability to challenge the authority of Iraqi central government.

Some of the PMU seniors gave up their military positions and disarmedtheir militants last year, rearranging themselves in a political group. Hadial-Amiri, the leader of the Badr organization of PMU, organized the FatahMovement in this election, which became the second largest party in the Iraqiparliament. However, not all the members of PMU agree to revoke their militantmembership and join the political competition. Whether the new government isable to curb the ambition of the PMU remains unknown.

The third sensitive issue is whether the incoming government is able tokeep a balance between Washington and Tehran. Iranian involvement in Iraq isnothing new, having existed for many years. Iran shares a 1,500-kilometer longborder with Iraq, and is a predominantly Shia country, similarly to Iraq.

From Tehran'sperspective, the ability to control developments within Iraq effectively is animportant condition for expanding the influence of the principles of theIslamic Revolution in the religious, ideological, and military realms ofadditional strategic regions, such as Syria and Lebanon.

Washington was the major constructor of the Iraqi political structureafter 2003. The US military invasion of Iraq in 2003 fundamentally changed thegeopolitical landscape in the Middle East, including the Gulf region, but Iranremains the only regional power without any powerful opponent in theregion. 

After Donald Trump assumed US presidency last year, Washington scrutinizedIran even more, perceiving it as the most imminent threat in the Middle East.Against this backdrop, Iraq will likely become another competition fieldbetween the US and Iran.

No matter whichparties form the incoming Iraqi government, they need patience and tactics tobalance different powers, just like dancing on the heads of snakes.