2018年8月13日，中心研究员王晋于中央电视台英语频道（CGTN）发表时事评论文章，全文如下：
When the sanctions against Iran by the United States came into effect thismonth, US President Donald Trump may have believed that Iranian leaders wouldask for direct negotiations with him for a new deal instead of attempting tokeep the nuclear deal, or the JCPOA, which was signed three years ago and fromwhich the US has withdrawn.
The “optimistic calculation” of Trump over Iran’s willingness tocompromise is founded upon the latter’s possible economic collapse resultingfrom the US' sanctions. While Iran’s economy is having difficulties for sure,it is still far away from “collapsing.”
Since thebeginning of this year, the Iranian currency, rial, has lost more than 50percent of its value against the US dollar. Although the official rate betweenthe rial and the US dollar is about 42,000:1, the rate between the rial and theUS dollar has exceeded more than 100,000:1 on the black market.
The devaluation of the rial actually makes any business between foreignerswith Iranians take on huge risk, while the problems of inflation andunemployment have caused a lot of resentment among Iranians.
The persistent decline in the purchasing power of the currency resultingfrom the devaluation of the rial might further provoke the tension between themoderate government led by President Hassan Rouhani with hardliners representedby Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards and conservatives made up of Islamicclergies at home.
But maybe we should not overestimate the difficulties of Iran’s economy.
The devaluation of the rial and inflation in the Iranian economy isnothing new. In fact, every Iranian president in the past few decades, fromAyatollah Rafsanjani in the 1990s to Seyyed Mohammad Khatami in the early2000s, from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the incumbent Hassan Rouhani, had to dealwith problems resulting from currency devaluation.
The officialexchange rate between the rial and the US dollar during the Rafsanjanipresidency transformed from 72:1 to 1755: 1; during Khatami presidency, reachedmore than 4800: 1; during Ahmadinejad, exceeded 30,000: 1.
Interestingly, the remarkable devaluation of the rial during the past fewdecades usually took place in the second presidential term. As Rouhani justbegan his second presidency after 2017, Iran is simply repeating history.
Meanwhile, the inflation in Iran is not “beyond control,” and the decreasein the unemployment rate might continue. Notably, the inflation rate under theRouhani presidency is experiencing a new historic low. Ever since the IslamicRepublic of Iran was established in 1979, the annual inflation rate was nearly20 percent before Hassan Rouhani assumed the presidency.
Under the leadership of Rouhani’s administration, Iran’s annual inflationrate has been in the single digits, which is unprecedented since 1979. Inaddition, the unemployment rate fell to 12.1 percent in spring 2018 from 12.6percent in spring 2017. This economic data might contribute to economichardship for Iran, but not likely to an economic collapse.
Finally, withthe unyielding and steadfast adherence of China, Russia and European states’commitment to the JCPOA, Iran is not alone in the international arena. Newsanctions might bring economic hardship to Iran, but not make Iran succumb toDonald Trump’s wishful expectations.
