中心特聘研究员王晋2018年2月28日于中国国际电视台（CGTN）发表英文评论文章，全文如下：
A daily five-hour “humanitarian pause” called by Russia has come into effect on Tuesday in Syria’s Eastern Ghouta area near Damascus to allow civilians to evacuate, after the UN Security Council adopted resolution No. 2401 seeking a 30-day ceasefire across Syria.
It is not the first time a UN ceasefire resolution is introduced in Syria. The latest one was brought about by humanitarian concerns over the fighting in rebel-held Eastern Ghouta where nearly 400,000 civilians are trapped.
The daily humanitarian pause put forward by Russia would facilitate the evacuation of civilians and the transferring of humanitarian goods into the Eastern Ghouta area and other warzones. The ceasefire is crucial and badly needed for the civilians, and it is necessary for all sides to conform with for the next 30 days.
Military conflicts always mean disaster for civilians, especially in today’s city or settlement fighting. Hundreds of people were killed and injured and many infrastructures were destroyed. It is therefore necessary for international society to take measures to help the suffering civilians in Eastern Ghouta.
Meanwhile, the recent military offensive launched by the Syrian government has nearly crushed rebels in the Eastern Ghouta area. The major rebel group in Eastern Ghouta is Jaysh al-Islam, which is a Salafi militant group supported by Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Gulf Arab states and the West need to put forward a ceasefire through UN security Council to stop the military offensive.
Eastern Ghouta has always been an important strategic location for both Syrian government and the rebels. The area is adjacent and close to capital Damascus, making it important for the government to reclaim the area.
Moreover, Eastern Ghouta is the last stronghold held by rebel groups in central Syria. Given the fact that government forces has grasped the upper hand in the civil war, the Eastern Ghouta area has become a sensitive area for both military and militants.
According to the new UN resolution, although the current ceasefire arrangement is designed to stop all the conflicts in Syria for 30 days, the ceasefire can hardly be faithfully implemented.
First, Turkey has actually rejected the implementation of ceasefire in Afrin in Northern Syria. Turkish military forces and its supported Free Syria Army are still launching military offensive and the ceasefire cannot guarantee the pause of all military conflicts in this area. Turkey’s strategic aim is to establish a “buffer zone” in Northern Syria to settle not only the Syria rebel groups supported by Turkey, but also the nearly four million Syrian refugees inside Turkey.
Second, the situation now in Eastern Ghouta is still sensitive. It is difficult to ensure that all sides in the area will fully implement the ceasefire, largely because any small skirmishes and conflicts might escalate into full confrontation and finally result into the total failure of the resolution.
The situation in Eastern Ghouta is similar to what happened in Aleppo last year when Syrian government forces surrounded the city while the rebel groups inside the city organized stubborn resistance. After battlefield stalemate and humanitarian suffering, the government and rebels reached an agreement that the rebel groups will be re-deployed from Aleppo to Northwest Idlib province, in exchange to the government's re-taking of Aleppo city.
Given the difficulties of fighting in the streets in modern war field and the high civilian casualties, it is very likely that Eastern Ghouta will become another Aleppo. However, that depends on the intensive negotiation and mediation from other regional powers to facilitate this kind of arrangement.
Third, Israel is getting increasingly active in the Syrian conflict. Israel, on the one hand, has its own concerns in Syria. Israel does not want to see the Iranian or any other Shia militant groups supported by Iran in Golan Heights, and does not want to see the massive destruction weapons transferred from Iran or Syria to Hezbollah.
However, on the other hand, Israel cannot attend the Syria political conference as Israel's legal existence status is still denied by Syria and most Arab states. Therefore Israel has to take actions to show its bottom line in Syria through active military strikes, and these air strikes might provoke the retaliations from Hezbollah and other Shia groups inside Syria, and might escalate into large-scale confrontation.
The future of Syria rested upon how the political structure is designed. Will Syria restore the “centralized” state under Bashar Assad family before 2011, or a “decentralized”state consisting of several local authorities in Northern and Southern Syria? It is still a very sensitive and debatable issue. Diplomatic efforts are surely needed, but we need unified diplomatic efforts with shared agenda, not diversified agenda. It is still a long way to go before peace in Syria will be finally realized.
(Wang Jin is a PhD candidate at the School of Political Science, University of Haifa and a research fellow at the Syria Research Center, Northwest University. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the view of CGTN.)
