Turkey surprised everyone when it initiated the latest “Operation Olive Branch” towards the northwestern Syrian region of Afrin, held by the Democratic Union Party (PYD). According to Turkey, the PYD is the Syrian branch of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has vowed that Turkey will not retreat from “Operation Olive Branch” until all “terrorist elements” are cleared from the area.
While Turkey’s military offensive continues, Russia and the United States are busy blaming each other. Russia maintains that the latest move by Turkey was triggered by statements from the US in early January about the formation of a 30,000-strong “Border Security Force” by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is led by the PYD and its militants, along the Iraqi and Turkish borders, despite earlier promises that Washington would recover all arms delivered to the SDF following the capture of Raqqa from ISIL.
It is necessary for both US and Russia to offer help to the PYD in northern Syria. From the US perspective, on the one hand, it needs to stay in Syria to continue to train the local militants to help them maintain the local order and to prevent the re-emergence of Islamic extremists in this area. On the other hand, the US needs a stronghold inside Syria, especially in northeast Syria, to monitor Iran-backed militant groups and to seek its influence over the Syria peace negotiations in Geneva.
Meanwhile, as Moscow prepares for its Syrian National Dialogue Congress this month, the guest list might still be in flux. Russia hopes to broker peace between the Syrian regime and its opposition groups, including the PYD. Russia views the PYD as an important “counterterrorism” partner in the Middle East and believes it is necessary to invite the PYD into the future political reconstruction of Syria.
Turkey views both Russia’s invitation of PYD to Sochi, and the US plan to organize BSF, as important steps to legitimize PYD’s presence in northern Syria. Therefore, it is necessary for Turkey to take measures to show its anger and dissatisfaction against PYD’s dominance in northern Syria through organizing its latest military offensive towards Afrin.
Turkey’s military offensive makes it pretty awkward for the US in northern Syria. The relations between Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (APK) led by President Erdogan and US have been strained since the failed Turkish military coup in 2016. The US cannot ignore the influence of Turkey in northern Syria. Meanwhile, the US influence in the northern Syria Kurdish area centers on Qamishli. Therefore, the US actually lacks necessary measures to leverage Turkey’s foreign policy and the US stance over Turkey’s latest military offensive against Afrin in northwest Syria has to be modest.
Turkey’s military offensive also makes it pretty awkward for Russia in northern Syria. The most widely accepted view is that Turkey intervened in Afrin, which lies within Russia’s zone of influence, with Moscow’s blessings and expectations of American inertia that despite US calls for restraint have been vindicated so far. Russia needs unity of all the related parties in the Syrian civil war to facilitate the upcoming peace talks in Sochi, the Russia tourism resort, so that Russia needs a “yes” answer from Turkey. When a war is inevitable between Turkey and the PYD, Russia chooses Turkey rather than the PYD.
In addition, the Syrian government and Iran are also in a spot. The final aim of President Bashar Assad is to re-control all the Syrian territory and to re-establish the authority of the Baath Party (Arab Socialist Renaissance Party) led by the Assad family. The Syria government and Iran hope to see the clearance of PYD in northern Syria. Given the fact that Syria’s major military attention right now is concentrated on the northwest province of Idlib, not the Afrin area, it is the best option for the government and Iran to “wait and see”. That is why the Syria government condemns Turkey’s military offensive on the one hand, but does not react too fiercely on the other.
Finally, Turkey’s military incursion might also make things awkward for itself. On the one hand, the success of “Operation Olive Branch” depends on how the Turkey-backed military offensive continues. During the past days, the Free Syria Army offensive backed by Turkey has been strongly resisted on the ground by PYD militants near Afrin, and if the battlefield stalemate continues, more variables might get involved and the war might last longer than Turkey expected, and will further complicate the political solution for the civil war.
On the other hand, the aim of Turkey’s “olive branch” is still up in the air. If Turkey hopes to establish an “independent region” dominated by Turkey in northern Syria after Turkey successfully controlled the Afrin area, Iran and the Assad government might be enraged. Iran has expressed its “concern” over Turkey’s military offensive, while the Syria government has condemned Turkey's offensive, saying it “violates Syria’s territory and sovereignty.” Given that Turkey still upholds the principle of “Assad must go,” if Turkey cannot end “Operation Olive Branch” in a short period, and if Turkey shows its ambition to set up a buffer zone inside northern Syria, Turkey will face growing pressure both at home and abroad and find itself in an awkward position.
(Wang Jin is a PhD candidate at the School of Political Science, University of Haifa and a research fellow at the Syria Research Center, Northwest University. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.)
