2018年11月10日，中心研究员王晋于中央电视台英语频道（CGTN）发表评论文章，全文如下：

For the first time, a Taliban representative is part of the Afghan government delegation to a high-level international peace conference in Moscow. Representatives from 11 countries, including China, India, Pakistan and Iran are also in attendance.

Although both the Taliban and the Afghan government have rejected direct negotiations, the meeting in Moscow is still meaningful and considered a landmark in the Afghanistan peace process.

Since 2001, when US-led international forces overthrew a Taliban government, the Taliban has rejected the legitimacy of the government in Kabul. For years, the Taliban has advocated direct talks with the US, rather than Kabul, which, from the perspective of the Taliban, is controlled by the US anyway.

Although the Taliban’s influence in Afghanistan has grown significantly since US-led international forces left Afghanistan in 2014, it is still unlikely that the Taliban could overthrow the current government in the near future, given its weak and fragile internal structure, and the strong support for the Afghan government from the international community.

Meanwhile, the rise of ISIL in Afghanistan, has become an important shared threat for both the Afghan government and the Taliban. ISIL labels both the Taliban and the Afghan government as a vital enemy and has expanded its area in Southern and Eastern Afghanistan, especially in the Nangarhar Province neighboring Kabul.

Therefore it is necessary for both the government and the Taliban to reach a political consensus and fight against the shared enemy – ISIL.

This is why Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that ISIL wanted to “turn Afghanistan into a springboard for its expansion in Central Asia” when he hosted the meeting in Moscow.

The Taliban has also started secret communications with both Washington and the Afghan government. In June, after months of negotiations, the Taliban and the Afghan government reached a three-day ceasefire.

In July, Taliban officials started secret meetings with their US counterparts. Three months later, under the reconciliation of the US, the Pakistan government released Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar who was the second-in-command under the late Taliban leader Mullah Omar and had been held for eight years. He has supported talks with the Afghan government.

This move was interpreted as an opportunity for the peace process between the Taliban and the government. However, there are still many obstacles for major breakthroughs of the peace process between the Taliban and the government.

First, there is mutual distrust between the two parties. The Taliban stressed that it would not attend any direct talks with the government and perceives it as a US “puppet.” While Kabul maintains that negotiations should be arranged by the government, not Russia or any other third party. Given the fragile coalition inside the government, it still needs time before any direct and meaningful talks can be held between the two sides.

Second, even the direct peace talks were to be held, neither side wants to give up their leverage. The idea of peace talks has gained momentum, but both the Taliban and the government want to maximize their leverage and speak from the position of strength in any negotiations.

With a presidential election in April next year, any violent clashes between the Taliban and the government might escalate into a large-scale military confrontation and fail the peace talks.

Third, the international and regional tensions between the US, Russia, India, and Pakistan also impact the peace process. The Afghan government and the US have accused Russia and Pakistan of supporting the Taliban, while Russia and Pakistan accused the US of striking civilians in military operations inside Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the geological rivalry between India and Pakistan might also impose a negative influence on the peace process, given India’s close relationship with the Afghan government and Pakistan’s ties with the Taliban.

China has upheld the principle of “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” and has played an active constructive role in facilitating the peace process in this country. China hopes to work together with various international organizations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and with global and regional powers such as the United States, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Russia, to stimulate peace process and stability in Afghanistan.